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Bitcoin as the Hurdle Rate: Why Everything Is Falling When You Price It in Bitcoin

For most people, the default way to measure wealth is in dollars (or whatever local currency they use). Your salary goes up, your house appreciates, your portfolio grows — and you feel like you’re winning.

But bitcoin flips that script.

When you start to think in terms of bitcoin — to denominate prices in the hardest money ever created — the entire world looks different. And in many cases, you realize you’re not actually winning at all.


The Inversion: Seeing the World Through Bitcoin

One of the biggest aha moments I had was when I began to truly see bitcoin as money.

When you invert your thinking and measure prices in bitcoin, you notice the opposite of inflation: the cost of living goes down over time.

Eggs, housing, energy — priced in bitcoin, they’ve all been falling. That’s not hype. That’s math.

Think about it this way: have you ever been to a foreign country and caught yourself mentally converting prices back into your home currency? At first, you might see a coffee for €3 and think, “Oh, that’s about $3.25.” But after a few days, you start thinking directly in euros.

Bitcoin works the same way. Once you start viewing prices in sats — short for satoshis, the smallest unit of bitcoin (100,000,000 sats = 1 bitcoin) — you stop converting back to dollars and start valuing things directly in bitcoin’s native unit of account.

This is where bitcoin flips another mental model: you’re not “investing” in bitcoin — you’re saving in it. Investing is when you take risk to try to outperform the market. Saving in bitcoin is about holding the strongest form of money we’ve ever had, one that historically appreciates in purchasing power over time.

My podcast co-host Jack calls it “putting on your orange-colored glasses.” Once you do it, you can’t unsee it.

A Personal Example: My House That “Appreciated” — And Actually Lost Value

I bought my first house in 2012 for $186,000.

On paper, I’ve done incredibly well. Today, it’s worth $700,000.

That’s a nearly 4x increase in fiat terms.

But in 2012, bitcoin was $12. That means the house cost about 15,000 BTC back then.

Fast forward to today — $700,000 would buy you roughly 6 BTC.

In bitcoin terms, my house has lost 99.9% of its value. And here’s the real kicker: had I bought bitcoin instead of that house, I’d be a billionaire today.

That’s the silent truth: fiat makes you feel richer because the numbers keep getting bigger, but in reality you’re often just treading water against a sinking currency. And when measured against the best form of money ever created, you’re not winning — you’re falling behind.

Housing Is Depreciating in Bitcoin Terms

It’s not just my personal example — the broader housing market tells the same story. Here’s a five-year snapshot:

In 2019, the median new U.S. home cost 36 BTC.



By 2024, that number was 7.5 BTC.



That’s a nearly 80% drop in price — not because houses are getting cheaper in fiat, but because bitcoin is appreciating faster than housing.

When you zoom out to the full 12-year view, the downtrend is even clearer:



The line slopes relentlessly downward. Housing is depreciating when measured in bitcoin.

50,000+ BTC to single digits

Over the last 13 years, the median new U.S. home price in bitcoin has fallen from over 50,000 BTC to under 8 BTC in 2024— a straight-line depreciation trend when measured in sound money.


This tweet from Joe Burnett crystallizes the trend in raw, undeniable figures.

Bitcoin as the Hurdle Rate

In traditional investing, the hurdle rate is the minimum return you need to justify an investment. If you can’t beat it, you’re better off doing nothing and holding your benchmark asset.

As John Arnold wrote in Bitcoin Is Eating the World:

“If your investment can’t outperform bitcoin, you shouldn’t make the investment.”

For over a decade, bitcoin has been that benchmark. It has compounded at an average annual rate that obliterates every other asset class, even with volatility.

That means the question isn’t “Did my stock portfolio go up 8%?” but “Did it beat bitcoin?”

For most investments, the answer is a resounding no.

One Bitcoin Is Still One Bitcoin

There’s a reason bitcoiners say “One bitcoin = One bitcoin”.

It’s not about short-term price swings — it’s about measuring your wealth in the scarcest, hardest, most secure money we’ve ever had.

When you do that, you see that everything is falling — not because the world is collapsing, but because bitcoin is steadily absorbing value.

Why This Matters for Business Owners

If you’re running a business, pricing in bitcoin isn’t just an academic exercise. It’s a mental model that can change:

  • Treasury strategy — deciding whether to hold bitcoin instead of cash reserves.

  • Capital allocation — only pursuing projects that outperform bitcoin’s historical returns.

  • Customer engagement — appealing to bitcoiners who already think this way and whose wealth grows daily.

If bitcoin is the hurdle rate, then everything in your business — from new hires to marketing campaigns — should be re-considered and measured against it.

Next Steps for Merchants:

  • Start accepting bitcoin alongside your current payment options — simple to set up, and instantly opens your doors to a new customer base.

  • Choose a custody setup that fits your comfort level — from easy custodial wallets to full self-custody for maximum control.

  • Equip your staff and customers with confidence — a smooth, knowledgeable checkout experience drives adoption and repeat business.

That’s where we can help. At The Bitcoin Payments Advisor, we simplify bitcoin payments for business owners — no technical skills required.

📩 Book a free consultation and start thinking in bitcoin today.


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