0:05Welcome to Medium of Exchange, the podcast where we spotlight business owners building on a Bitcoin standard.0:10Each week, we'll share real stories, practical insights, and why this monetary shift matters more than ever.0:17This week's a little different, though. We've got some feedback from one of our listeners, which by the way, guys,0:22please give us feedback. It's super helpful. And this listener was requesting visuals, charts, and to talk0:28specifically about volatility. Jack, you want to talk about volatility today? Hell yeah. I mean, volatility, that's0:34what that's what uh gets the juices flowing, right? That's what keeps you excited. So, at my payments company, the Bitcoin0:41payments adviser, we talk about accepting a form of money that stores value over time and saving in a form of0:47money that stores value over time, aka treasury management in businesses. And I0:53think sometimes people f folks will ask I I can't really accept a form of money that can drop 30% in a day,1:01you know. Uh what what do you think is Bitcoin too volatile? I I think I'll get into it a little bit deeper as we get1:07into the episode, but it depends on how you define volatile and definitions and1:12words are important to, you know, become clear of what you're actually talking1:18about because in terms of like nominal US dollar price, I can see why that's a barrier to entry for people. But when I1:25look at Bitcoin and its volatility, I actually view it as the one of the lower volatile1:32things that I'm exposed to. So that's great. Okay. So, so we're1:37going to focus on three things today. Number one, what is Bitcoin?1:43Number two, which Jack will share about price discovery. Number three, log charts. And this will be the visual1:50component that our listener was requesting. So, I'm going to go over the first section first. What is Bitcoin?1:57Bitcoin is money. We view Jack and I view Bitcoin as money, not necessarily as a speculative asset.2:05So, we can talk about a couple different forms of money. One, a debt-based governmentissued form of money called2:11fiat. In my country, those are US dollars. The second is a fixed supply2:17decentralized global internet form of money, also known as Bitcoin. And from a2:23volatility standpoint, what is the difference? Well, fiat guarantees that you'll basically lose 5, 10, 15% every2:30year to inflation. And Bitcoin offers volatility with exponential upside. And2:36volatility over time, as we've seen, is decreasing. But for me, one of the really big aha moments when I was when I2:42began to see Bitcoin as money. And when you invert your thinking and see the world through the lens of Bitcoin and2:52the cost of living begins to go down, it's the opposite of inflation. When you denominate in Bitcoin, the price of2:59everything is going down. Jack, have you have you noticed this where you're like, have you looked at like eggs, energy,3:04housing, and denominated, you know, priced it in Bitcoin? Yeah. Yeah, I mean once you start to put3:11on those orange colored glasses, you really can't stop seeing things priced in Bitcoin. It's really interesting too3:17that you use the word inversion cuz I know we were both taking notes before this and I literally wrote the same3:22thing. I said Bitcoin requires you to invert your thinking and change your perspective on everything. So, exactly3:28what you said there, like you just start thinking in opposites, but you realize that those opposites often lead to more3:34positives. So, I'll give you guys a very specific example on the inversion topic3:42here. I bought my first house in 2012 for $186,000.3:49And obviously, the default is to denominate in fiat or dollars. Uh, and I met this real estate guy once and I3:56mentioned how the price of real estate is falling when you denominate in Bitcoin. He was like, I disagree. And I4:01was I didn't really know how to respond to him because it's not in my opinion. It's just fact. I don't know that he4:08really understood what I meant when I said pricing real estate in Bitcoin, but4:13my property has appreciated from $186,000 to $700,000 today.4:21So, like on paper, that's an incredible win, right? Most people see that and say, "Wow, you4:29crushed it." This though is where Bitcoin like massively changed my4:34perspective. In 2012, Bitcoin was $12, which means that when you denominate in4:39Bitcoin, it would cost 15,000 Bitcoin to buy that house. Fast forward to today, it's worth $700,000 in fiat, but in4:46Bitcoin terms, it's worth six Bitcoin. So, even though I won in dollars,4:52guess how much value I lost when denominating Bitcoin?4:57I mean like bas basically 100%. Yes. 99.9%.5:0399.9%. So that's the silent lesson of like fiat is it tricks you into thinking5:09that you're winning because the numbers are getting bigger. Like wow look at me go. My net worth is increasing. Like my5:15real estate is increasing in price. However, when you factor in inflation5:20frequently you're actually just treading water. In some cases even sinking. And when you compare to the best form of the5:28best store of value we've ever had, the best form of money we've ever had, you're losing money rapidly. That was5:34the huge like unlock for me is I'm getting a 99.9% loss. Like wait, I5:39thought I had made so much money. But when you realize that Bitcoin is not an investment,5:44it is a way to work less, to live the life that you want to live, to stop toiling, because now you can save in a5:51form of money that stores value over time. It's the exact opposite of how the cost of living is always going up and5:58housing is going up and everything, right? It's like everything is falling when denominated in Bitcoin. So, the6:03first point here is just that Bitcoin is money and if you begin to price things at Bitcoin, it can change how you see6:09things. It's where this phrase one bitcoin is still one bitcoin. It's like a nod to the fact that that bitcoin is6:15just money and you can price things in the best form of money, not just the one that the government happens to issue.6:20Have you ever seen Jack the the chart of how many sats will get you $1, which is another interesting one.6:27So I haven't seen any specific chart. However, I'm like so maxi at the point6:32where like I have the stats per dollar on my home screen on my iPhone. So yes,6:38I have seen it and I've seen that number I've seen that number go from four bit from four digits to three digits over6:43the last few months. It's been it's been very exciting. But also, but also it's6:49like, "Oh, shoot. I need more." Yeah. Yeah. Like just I was looking at the last 5 years. It's like in 2020 it6:54was like almost 10,000 sats. 2023 was 5,000 sats. Today it's less than a thousand sats that $1 will buy you. And7:03so it's just another way of looking at the price of Bitcoin or the volatility7:08and you know. So Jack, how do how do you view volatility though? Like I I know7:14that you had taken some notes here. You want to chime in? Yeah, I mean volatility is tough because volatility7:22often is a like reflex or reaction of just7:28time and place in a moment, right? Like there's no it's hard to define what volatility is because you7:34need to create clear parameters of a period of time. So in over the course of7:40a week or over the course of a month, year, 5 years, 10 years, right? So7:46volatility from my perspective is kind of like instability. When I hear7:52volatility, I think, okay, that's a volatile situation. It could blow up at any moment. It could, you know, be a7:58disaster. Something could, you know, quote unquote break. And what's interesting about Bitcoin is I always8:03hear Bitcoin's too volatile. And I always hear that why would I put my money in something that can, you know,8:09drop 50% in a day, which it has. And I've lived through that experience. I remember, you know, sitting at home back8:16in March of 2020. Uh, and like Bitcoin dropped to like what was it like, didn't8:22Bitcoin drop to like 7K back in 2020? Something crazy. Maybe even 3K. I don't8:27know. But so I remember like I I remember that. And I was just like, "All right, it's8:33over." Not Bitcoin, but um the but just the world at that time. And that's what's8:40interesting on going back to volatility because there are so many like external dynamics that can go into the day-to-day8:47price whether it is something like a pandemic or a war or a major exchange8:52gets hacked. You know, you hear all these stories, but I always go back to reminding myself like markets are irrational. Humans are irrational.9:00IPSOacto, those are the same thing. And you're, you know, kind of trying to price a monetary revolution in real9:07time. You know, one of the things that you talked about, Jason, that you know, describing like what Bitcoin is and what9:14and you kept saying Bitcoin is money, right? And then you kind of if you take that a step further, you start to ask,9:19okay, what is money? And it's something that we just generally accept as valuable form of exchange. Like it9:25doesn't have to be US dollars. Like if you go to Mexico and you pay for something in pesos, then you don't think9:31of that as any different, right? You think of that as normal. But when you go to a merchant or some online shop and9:39you ask to pay in Bitcoin, they look at you like you have five heads. So, it's just like a it's a bit of a change of of9:44perspective. And going and you know, that's that's what Bitcoin does. It changes your perspective. You take a new9:50view on basically everything. I mean, going back to what I mean when I say9:57stable versus instable or unstable is like10:03when I think about Bitcoin, I think about that central thesis. And how I view the central thesis is 21 million10:10supply cap decentralized and I can hold my own keys, right? No intermediary10:16third party. And those are kind of the three like pillars of of the the Bitcoin10:21thesis and foundation that actually make me feel that it is not volatile at all10:27because I can confirm and verify that those things are accurate and true at10:33any given moment. I own on my own valition whereas when you think of the10:39fiat system and US dollars things can change on a dime. We saw it in 2020.10:44we've sought in back in 2008. And an image that has stuck with me throughout a majority of my life was when I was10:51probably in middle school learning about World War or the events leading up to10:56World War II and post World War I, Weimar, Germany, and just seeing like pictures in the textbook of people wheelbarrowing dollars or the whatever11:04the currency they use. I don't know. Yeah. They're burning it to keep warm. Exactly. Like literal toilet paper, right? And like just seeing what11:12inflation can do to a society and there are countless stories when you study the history of money about that. But but11:18like that image of just seeing somebody with a wheelbarrow of cash on my textbook like that was so just like11:25tattooed in my brain. I I see that like all the time. And that always made me11:31understand that yeah inflation's bad. And then I learn about this Bitcoin thing and I'm like okay inflation's bad.11:38Bitcoin is like inflation. Some people call it inflation resistant. Some people call it an inflation hedge. It's just11:44deflationary. It's the opposite. It's an inverse. And that kind of started the wheels turning of me saying, "Okay, like11:51inflation's bad. This thing's the opposite, so it's probably good." And then you learn more and more and you go down the rabbit hole, but that's for11:57another topic for another day. But so that's kind of the thing that I continuously go back and forth on of12:03whenever there's something in the news that causes the Bitcoin price to drop. It's a little ironic that, you know,12:08we're recording this today as as the markets have been pretty volatile this week. And I just say, has the central12:14thesis changed? And if the answer is yes, then I can start to have a conversation. But in the last seven or12:21eight years that I've been following, studying, and researching Bitcoin, that12:26has not changed. So, you know, my initial thought when Bitcoin dropped to 3K back in 2020 was, my god, it's over.12:34But then I but then I pause, take a breath. I'm like, wait, has anything fundamentally changed for this thing?12:41And the answer consistently and perpetually, I hope, is no. It it12:47hasn't. And that is what makes Bitcoin not volatile. It's what makes you see12:52the inverse of Bitcoin isn't getting more expensive in terms in terms of the dollar. It's actually staying constant.12:58It's the dollar that's losing its value against Bitcoin. As long as that holds13:03true, I remain bullish. Like I I don't know what else I can say to that matter13:09other than I think Bitcoin is going to continue to spread to where people understand this value proposition and13:15it'll continue to infiltrate and absorb not only these markets but also the culture and with that you get increased13:21demand and because of the supply will be held constant at 21 million then that's13:27where you get like the number go up marketing play but overall13:32it's just one bitcoin equals one bitcoin because there will only ever be 21 million. So, how does that work for13:38defining volatility and the irrationality of markets, Jason? Well, what I really took from that is13:45how you were able to distill something that is frankly quite complex down to13:51three bullet points, which is that it has a fixed supply, that it is decentralized, and you can take13:57self-custody, right? It's fixed supply. That's the magic sauce of Bitcoin is14:02that it can't be infinitely inflated by an elite group of people going into a14:08back room and devaluing and debasing your currency overnight. Yes, 100%. But it's also the the14:15self-custody is really important too because one of the other little tidbits of a personal story that made me just14:22have a bit of a disdain for banks. Um I remember I was in like I was really14:28young. I was I think I was in fifth grade and I got a check for my birthday from my parents and it was like I I'd14:34saved up enough, you know, dollars to open a bank account for in our local credit union. So, here I am walking into14:41our credit union and I'm like, I would like to open a checking account, please. And they rejected me. They didn't let me14:47open a bank account. And I remember like turning to my mom and being like, what?14:52Like, I'm trying to give them money, right? Like, like why can't I have a bank account? And that stuck with me for15:00a while because then, you know, you get into to 2008 and you start to learn more about what what the banks actually did15:06to crash the economy uh and all the big short and that whole fiasco.15:12When I got the when I when I understood the idea of a decentralized peer-to-peer uh you know money system, I was like,15:20"Oh, I can just get dollars without anyone's permission without the bank being like, "Yeah, you're approved."15:27I don't know. It just never sat right with me. And not only do you have self-custody of15:33your Bitcoin, but you have the actual money. The bank doesn't because of15:39fractional reserve banking, the bank doesn't actually have your money. Well, that's what that's what got me angry as I started to learn more about15:45Bitcoin. Like when I got older, I was like, wait, they don't even hold the money and they wouldn't let me open an account. Like what? Yeah.15:50So, I again like I I just I've always been that kind of type A personality of like15:56I want to control. I want control. And you know that takes a lot of practice to understand that there are only so many16:02things you can control. But what's beautiful about Bitcoin and that I like to use the analogy of Bitcoin being a16:08fire extinguisher is like Bitcoin allows you to take control of something that previously it was very difficult to do.16:16And that's the innovation. Yes, there is the decentralized peer-to-peer money aspect of it, but it's also that self-16:23sovereignty that so many people say they want to control and they want to take control of their situation, but they16:30don't actually do it. And Bitcoin's a relatively easy way to do that. And then you see your net worth and your16:36purchasing power increase over time because it it instills this type of discipline that um that a lot of a lot16:44of our fiat systems don't really uh don't. My most recent banking story, I16:50became so grateful for Bitcoin for let's16:55just put it this way. I became so grateful for a form of money that I could have control over without trusting17:04that a third party would not screw me over. In my case, I tried to wire some17:10money for one of one of my houses. We're doing a remodel and Bank of America thought it was fraud, which I'm grateful17:17that they're, you know, making sure that there's, you know, that I'm not getting scammed, of course, but it was such an17:25absolute nightmare to just get rec get control again over because I had all my banks there, bank accounts with them,17:31and it took almost 4 hours and they required me to go in person and I was just like, "Oh my gosh, what if I was17:38overseas? What if I was traveling? What if I couldn't drop all my meetings today? What if I like I literally can't make payroll. I can't do anything if I17:45don't have access to my money. And the ability to know17:51that it it's just like it it my shoulders relax like I I just feel this17:57like deep peace when when I go okay the price when denominated in fiat can go up18:02it can go down whatever it is but at the end of the day can Bitcoin credibly enforce its fixed supply is it18:09decentralized? Do I have self- custody? I'm good. Well said. Because I mean going back18:16like that's why I love the fire extinguisher analogy so much. I actually18:22kind of coined that one. If you remember the crowd strike outage that happened earlier this year. I thought that was18:28going to be the moment of hyper Bitcoinization. I thought that was when everybody was gonna be like, I need to I need to take control because I didn't I18:35remember I was working for my fiat job at that time and I didn't get paid that week. And it was I was in a very18:41uncomfortable spot because I was like I shouldn't be working if I'm if they're not going to pay me. Like that's the18:47contract, right? So, I was actually fortunate that part of my paycheck did18:53go through because of strikes built or because of strikes like Bitcoin payment, but I don't know if that I don't think18:58that was actually due to the Bitcoin network. That was just because they work on a smaller uh AC or newer a than the19:06others. But it was still it was still kind of funny that I was like, "Hey, I get paid in Bitcoin, so I got paid today part of my paycheck today." All that to19:13say that unfortunately that was not a moment of hyper Bitcoinization. We're still battling through that, but it's it19:19definitely woke up some people. Um, but it's it's it's a fire extinguisher, right? Like you see people say that they19:26want to put one, three, 15% of their portfolio in it because it's a way to19:32have an escape valve or to put out a fire if you need to make payroll or if you need to have quick access to19:39liquidity that legacy systems just don't provide. another like you mentioned it's19:45it's there's 247 liquidity right the banks close on Labor Day the banks close19:52on holidays Bitcoin 24/7 all day every day like19:59imagine if real estate was liquid well the price of real estate would probably20:05plummet the day war was announced right like it's it's not it doesn't have that20:11access liquidity It's taken me like 2 years basically just to be able to offload my rental properties.20:17Yeah. I mean, I have stories with buddies that I went to college with where we would be sitting on the couch late night, you know, after like a a20:23night of uh of of drinking and stuff like that and we'd look at the Bitcoin price and it'd be, you know, going back20:29to volatility. It'd be in a dip and I and we'd just buy at like 2 a.m. on a random ass night of the week. Um, and20:36it's funny looking back at some of those purchases because now, you know, those have 5xed, you know, is like it's just20:45it's crazy. Okay, so the next can we jump into log charts, logarithmic charts?20:51Yeah, and let me let me tee you up here for this one because I am very anti-chart.20:57I don't like looking at charts. I think they just add complexity for me when21:02again I'm pretty simple. It's like those three things and then how are the vibes and if the vibes are good then I'm like bullish and vibes are always good but I21:09understand that there's a place there's a place for for charts and for actual like deep rooted analysis. Um, so I'm21:17very much looking forward to this part of it because I'm hoping to learn something in21:23not just looking at like a zoomed out chart because that's that's typically the chart that I refer to people whenever they're like, "Oh my god, look21:29at Bitcoin or look at, you know, the this altcoin versus Bitcoin uh chart." And I'm like, "Yo, like zoom out five21:35years, zoom out 15 years." So that's what I want to go over. Do you when you look at charts, are you looking21:41at a regular scale or a log chart? Yeah, just regular. very very surface21:47level. I am as I am as like nent as it comes when it when it referring to like21:54any type of technical analysis. I mean I took a few finance classes in college but it never it's never been my forte.22:00I've never been a a number crunching guy. I mean I like there's different analytics that I like to look at. Um,22:06I'm not a, you know, total vibes guy, but there's I maybe I can we maybe I can22:11superimpose it in the right here in in the next uh or in the edited version of this, but there's a meme that I send to22:18my brother all the time when we're talking about fantasy baseball because he's very stats driven and I'm very22:24vibes driven. So, I'll share the meme. You'll see it right here. It's like silence data22:30driven decision maker. A vibes guy is talking. And that is my approach for22:36better or worse. Okay. Okay, Jack, this is really going to be helpful for you, I think. I hope because the log chart really was a big22:43unlock for me. Okay, so James Lavish sent out a really great email this week that I want to heavily reference because22:50I think he did a really really good job of breaking down the importance between a regular chart and how in a lot of22:56cases it's not that helpful versus a log chart which helps you zoom out and take perspective and see it all in23:02perspective. So just about so zooming out for a second before we get into23:07charts just about every major technological revolution whether it's the internet and e-commerce the inter uh23:14digital money like Bitcoin AI it follows a predictable and sometimes painful23:20market pattern of boom bust disbelief and then dominance and it's known as an23:25adoption curve or an S-curve. Disruptive technologies do not tend to grow23:30linearly. You've got the innovators, the true believers, and then early adopters. Then you got organic traction23:36accelerating, and then mass adoption. Then finally, the last believers or true skeptics. And it can be volatile at23:44times. And I want to share my screen. This is the screen share part. And we're going to talk about Amazon. We're going23:49to reference Amazon here for a second. Uh here we are. Screen share. Let me know if you can see that.23:56Okay. Okay. 1999 after surging to $113 in the dotcom boom24:04of late 1999 Amazon collapsed to $5 95%24:09draw down okay and prices were swinging wildly not24:15necessarily because it's a bad company it's a bad asset the asset is broken but24:21because the world had not caught up yet to this new thing called the internet and e-commerce24:26and the same adoption ion phase volatility has hit almost every other24:31exponential technology like electricity, automobiles, the internet and Bitcoin.24:37We've seen four draw downs of 80 plus%. And yet Bitcoin is still the best performing asset of the last 15 years.24:45So volatility is not a sign of failure. It's just the natural result of expon24:50what what James calls exponential potential crashing into linear expectations.24:56And it's really only obvious to those who are consistently zoomed out and it's a necessary byproduct of exponential25:02potential. So the problem here is that linear charts um linear price charts create25:11challenges when analyzing assets that compound. So a $20 move near $200, which25:17is uh 10% visually towers over a $2 move near $20, which is also 10%. So the25:24mathematical significance is identical, but the result is an optical illusion. The more successful an asset becomes,25:32the more its recent price action dwarfs everything that came before it. I'll show you the next chart. Amazon at25:38regular scale. Look at what's fascinating. If you look at the bottom left corner here, look at25:441999. 90 95% drop. You can Can you see it? It's a blip.25:51It's like a blip. last thing I would ever recognize on this chart. I mean, yeah, just there's that. I would25:59imagine that's a 2020 drop and then quick recovery, but uh on the right, but26:05yeah, when you go back to the early days of Bezos and Amazon, that just looks26:11like a gradually then suddenly. Yes. So the the.com surge and the26:19collapse of 99 um looks like a massive failure in the first chart, right? It's26:25up and then way down, but then when you go to the long-term picture, it's like,26:32you know, tiny little blip. So here is gold at a regular scale. Um here's26:38Bitcoin at a regular scale. What's interesting though is that the early26:43cycles that defined Bitcoin's adoption, 2011,26:492013, 2017, almost disappear into barely26:54little like ripples when the most recent price overwhelms the frame, which is27:00basically scale bias, right? like you look at this chart and it it barely even27:06is, you know, showing. Were you going to say something? Well, just to kind of further27:13that point there, it's funny because a lot of people and there's been a lot of discourse uh during this bull cycle27:18about how, you know, these new all-time highs are boring and pe and people are27:23kind of just scoffing at $115,000 Bitcoin or $120,00027:29Bitcoin to what you were saying, that's a $5,000 price movement. So it's only a few27:36percentage points, but that's that bias, right, of like, oh, we're not 100xing in27:41a day. No, but you're going up that in that value, which increases the market27:48cap of Bitcoin by I like an insane amount. Um, so that's just another way27:54to think of it. Yeah. So the linear price chart shows absolute dollars rather than27:59proportional change, which is the huge unlock for log charts, right? Um, so the the regular scale, it exaggerates the28:06drama of maturity and it trivializes the effects of early compounding. Jack, do28:11you think we're still early? I'm going to say we're still early until I'm on my until I'm like28:18I mean I don't We're always early. I know. I know. See, but actually we are always Sorry. I28:24think I got a little loud there. We are always early because28:30it's just a better way to save over time. your purchasing power will increase no matter how expensive it is.28:35And you can buy a fraction of a bitcoin. You could buy just, you know, 10,000 satoshi's for what 20 bucks or whatever28:42it is. And that will be worth more in 5 10 years from now than it is today. Yes,28:48100%. So I agree. A 60% draw down. Going28:53back to this uh let's see, let's go to Amazon. Okay. A28:5960% draw down early in Amazon's life and a 60% draw down decades later are identical in risk terms but one is a29:06tiny wiggle while the other one is a canyon on a linear regular chart. Okay. Investors looking at the picture not29:13math conclude the later event is categorically worse and they make it easy to believe that nothing happened29:18for years and then everything happened at once. In other words, gradually and suddenly which is a great story line for29:25short sellers and skeptics. So what's the solution? Linear charts are an optical illusion29:30for compounding assets and are the corrective lens. I love going to linear29:36charts and looking because it just gives this this zoomed out perspective. So Amazon now this look at this chart the29:43log version it shows 1999. It shows the drop right but it shows the in29:49perspective it's just generally up and to the right. So, a move from $10 to29:55$20, which is a 100% gain, takes up the same vertical distance as a move from $1,000 to $2,000, which is also 100%.30:03And likewise, 50% draw down is the same vertical drop, whether it happens at $20 or $200,000.30:11So, there's gold. This is actually this is gold on a log chart. That title's wrong.30:18Uh, and then here's Bitcoin on a on a log chart. Okay? And it's not that like, you know, linear charts can be useful if30:24you're like a day trader or whatever, but when we talk about accepting a form of money that stores value over time and30:30saving in a form of money that stores value over time, I think the log chart is so much more helpful because it shows30:36in context the adoption of new technology in the context of long-term price action and it and it30:42contextualizes it. Now, here's another mental unlock. Here's another one, which30:47is log log, also known as the power law. It it takes a logarithmic of chart of30:53the logarithmic chart and the red line is the log log. That's the power law. So30:59it literally just turns it into just a straight line. So if you go is Bitcoin too volatile on31:04a log log, it's just like it's a straight line. There's no volatility at all, right? It's just always up and to the right. So basically what you see31:10here is the full history of Bitcoin and how it has tightly followed this predictable curve. um31:17and how the price has steadily climbed along this path for the last 15 years.31:23Now I'm going to stop sharing my screen. What what is the price kind of a31:30reflection of? The power law thesis is that it's31:36actually network adoption and price is following network adoption. And so if you say well macroe event this,31:44macroevent that, you know what some country did or did not do. Well31:51ultimately adoption is increasing each and every day. Knowledge is increasing.31:57People understand the difference between crypto and Bitcoin. people understand the difference between a truly32:04decentralized insert all the many many things that make Bitcoin so unique and the properties that make it so32:09incredible and unique and it increases adoption and I believe adoption will continue right and that price will32:15follow adoption and James believes based on the chart that we will likely see I don't really want32:23to make any price predictions but he says between $250,000 to $1 million sometime between now and early 2030.32:31Nobody knows when that is like the model doesn't predict perfectly, you know, what Bitcoin will do next week or next quarter, but the the the general road32:39map of overall it's always up and to the right. I think that the log chart can be32:45helpful. Yeah. What are your thoughts? Yeah, I mean I I definitely get what you're saying, especially for somebody32:50who's getting introduced to Bitcoin and why it's valuable, right? Because to have to have that inverted perspective32:57of getting cheaper, the dollar losing value against Bitcoin versus Bitcoin getting more expensive against the33:02dollar, that takes time. So, it's like, okay, let's let's get you to understand33:09what you're actually thinking about, you know, saving in or adopting, and then from there, you could33:14act you can you can it'll just happen through osmosis. And I I think that's to33:20your point like at the end of the day adoption drives all. It's a very Gen Z, you know, kind of framing here, but like33:27that's that's vibes. That is vibes. And um there's been33:33there's been kind of a a recognition of that across the markets. You see it with these treasury companies who are, you33:39know, more or less leveraged Bitcoin plays and their business model is just to acquire more Bitcoin because they're33:46they're looking at the same charts that you just shared and they're looking at the adoption and the interest of people33:54who want to learn more and want to participate and want to have a piece of a34:00fixed supply pie. Fixed supply pie. I like that. and34:06they're looking at that and they're saying we want to acquire as much as possible. We're going to take the, you34:12know, fiat dollars that in our point of view are losing value and buy something34:18that mathematically will increase in value at a faster pace than anybody34:24else. And that's the business model. And then other people are like, okay, let me hop aboard that train. And then the34:29stock goes boom and you see it and there's, you know, a lot of people who are calling out some of the potential34:35volatility that could be in our future because of these strategies. But in the34:40short term, it's working. In the short term, it's volatile in the right direction, upward in the right direction. But I think that that's34:47that's a really good way to to, you know, start to get somebody on the path34:53of understanding adoption curves, innovative technology, emerging technologies, um, and how it35:01frames it against some of the things that we're more familiar with, whether it's Amazon, email, the internet,35:06whatever it may be. So, that's that's really cool. And I think the other chart that I like to look at and I wonder if35:13you're able to pull it up real quick is just like there's the, you know, Bitcoin price with the dollar staying flat and35:19then there's just Bitcoin actually staying flat and the dollar going down. And that's a that's another chart that I35:24like to look at even if it's, you know, kind of not as it might not be as like scientific. It's more just a mental35:30model, but that's that's another one where it helps see that inversion visually versus just like talking about35:37it. Uh, and you know, people people like charts and graphs because it for myself included, it makes me feel smart and it35:43makes me feel like I have evidence to back up my claims, but sometimes that evidence is just vibes.35:48Well, it goes back to the real estate guy when I said real estate is going down in price when denominating Bitcoin35:54and he was like, "No, it's not." I was like, I mean, I I could I could show you a visual if you want if that helps.36:00Like, I don't know what to tell you. This isn't an opinion of mine. Right. Right. Uh do you feel like Jack that that36:06Bitcoin is still an 80 vol asset? You think we're still going to be dropping 80%. I mean yeah why like maybe but it could36:12also go up 100. I think I mean at the end of the day like to your to that price prediction and I'm personally not36:18a price prediction guy. I don't like making price predictions. I don't listen to really anybody who makes a price36:24prediction because that is just that to me like you don't actually nobody knows36:29what the sun could explode tomorrow. Um everything is probability. All of life is probability.36:36Here's the thing. Could Bitcoin, to James Lavish's opinion, go up to a million dollars in in 2028? Yeah. Then36:44could it drop down to $350,000? I mean, that'd be what, a 65 70% drop?36:50And we're sitting here at 115K as of as of recording, Friday, August 1st, 2025.36:57Is Bitcoin dead if it's at 325 or $350,000?37:03you know, so like so that going back to like the scale and the kind of, you know, proportion or I forget the uh I37:10think that was the word you use proportion of of drops like it doesn't37:16Yeah. But at the end of the but also if you go back five years ago and $10037:22change in the price was a huge shift. Now we're thinking in terms of thousands and even thousands ultimately hopefully37:29to a million dollars a coin at some point in the future. So yeah, I wouldn't put it out there. I37:35mean, I know some people think that with all the institutional capital coming in, that's where the volatility starts to37:40flatten. Um, and that's where like maybe we won't see those crazy x or or37:48thousandx days or weeks, but we'll just see a consistent 10, 15, 20 uh37:55compounding percentage increase over, you know, a few months, which I mean that works, too. I don't care. Um cuz at38:02the end of the day like you just got to stay humble, stack hats, and hopefully work on something that you love and38:08provide value to the world. So that's kind of my perspective on it. And I think that that's where Bitcoin gets38:14really philosophical and spiritual in a sense because you start to start to not think about the price every single day38:20and you don't necessarily view it as an investment. And that takes a long time to understand. also takes seeing your38:27stack grow and seeing that you're actually like getting rewarded the value38:32that you put in for uh or the you're getting rewarded in value for the effort38:37that you put in. So that's another piece of it too. So you know a lot of people when the price is moving people will reach out to me and like I mean listen38:44we're at alltime high in prices. We're also at alltime high in hash rate and that's pretty freaking cool and that38:49never gets headlines. So that's just other pieces of the network that are just as important to that central38:55thesis, but it's not the, you know, the marketing employee that that gets all39:01the clicks. So it is what it is. It's just part of the it's just number go up is a great marketing engine for Bitcoin39:07for sure. All right. Um I don't think I have anything else.39:14Well, actually, I want to say this. If you're listening to this, we want to hear from you. Like I I'm I'm a regular39:20guy. like you're whoever is listening to this a lot of you folks are probably going to be way smarter than me what am I missing here39:25what are we not covering here what do you guys want to hear for from us uh on I will say this on the volatility thing39:31on draw down specifically I would have to agree that it's probably39:40not an 80% vault asset anymore with institutions I think 30% is extremely39:46realistic I think like 50 to 70% is probably also realistic But to your point, it's like we're at like, you39:52know, or so right now. We go up, we come back down to 300. Well, that's quite a39:57bit more than where we're at today. It says again, just you got to look at the log chart. You got to zoom out. You got to look at things in perspective. And40:03just remember to stay humble and stack sats. Yeah. Couldn't say it better myself. Um,40:09and for those, like you said, we love the feedback. We want more feedback. I think, you know, this is this is a40:15different approach to a lot of the episodes we've been putting out. So, if this is a positive way of us providing40:21some of that experience and knowledge, then I'm then I'm happy to to put out40:27more uh content like this. And additionally, for people who are looking to learn more, then find your local40:34Bitcoin meetup, just go on meetup.com, search for Bitcoin. I'm sure there's something in your area. That's how I40:40initially got introduced to the Bitcoin community, just going to the meetups in Chicago and then ultimately in Austin,40:46Texas and Nashville, Tennessee, and now being an organizer myself with Bitcoin Park. So, these conversations and people40:53wanting to share this knowledge is what I think is so special about yes, Bitcoin40:59Park and also just the Bitcoin community as a whole and the grassroots movement. So, look up your your local meetup. Go41:05in, say hi, find the organizer, introduce yourself, and ask all the questions in the world because there's41:10no such thing as a dumb question. They will likely refer you to a variety of41:16resources. They'll likely hopefully give you good recommendations on Bitcoin only41:21resources, but at the end of the day, you can always come back to this podcast as a resource as well to to hopefully41:27find that signal. Well said. All right. Thanks guys for listening. See you later, Jack.41:34Adios.